Analyzing Early Season Exit Velocity Data: Who’s for Real and Who’s Slumping?

The 2024 baseball season is well underway, and as we hit the one-month mark, some interesting trends are starting to emerge. One particular stat that is catching the eye of many analysts is Statcast’s new metric called EV50, which measures the average exit velocity of the top 50% of a hitter’s batted balls. This stat provides insight into a hitter’s consistent top-end exit velocities and has shown a strong correlation with future power production.

At the top of the EV50 leaderboard, we see familiar names like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, but there are also some surprises like Gunnar Henderson and William Contreras making their presence felt. One player who has raised eyebrows is Jordan Westburg, who has shown a significant improvement in his power production compared to previous seasons.

However, there are concerns about Westburg’s approach at the plate, as he is chasing pitches out of the zone more and making less contact overall. This could lead to regression in his batting average and strikeout rate in the near future. Similarly, Matt Chapman’s profile is raising questions, as he is making more contact but not translating it into better results on the field.

On the positive side, players like Brenton Doyle, Riley Greene, and Luis Garcia Jr. are showing improvements in their plate discipline and contact rates, leading to better offensive production. Starling Marte, despite his age and injury history, has added more power to his game by adopting a more selective approach at the plate.

Overall, the early-season exit velocity data is providing valuable insights into which hitters are making authoritative contact and which ones are due for regression. While some players are exceeding expectations, others are facing challenges that could impact their performance in the long run. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and whether hitters can sustain their early-season success.